Happy Opening Day folks!

We are hoping to continue building on our 2-0 start in Tokyo with four plays for Opening Day.

PHI Phillies first 4.5 innings -0.5 × 1 unit:

Our model predicts the first 5 innings of the Phillies and Nationals game to be a 2-0 score for the Phillies. We are going to take the first 4.5 innings to prevent a cover from Washington in the bottom of the fifth.

Mackenzie Gore is 1-4 with a 4.94 ERA in his career against the Phillies, who were the sixth best offence against southpaws last season. Zack Wheeler counters as a true ace who can give the Nat’s young lineup fits.

Cleveland Guardians first 5 innings +0.5 × 1 unit:

Our model has Cleveland to beat Kansas City outright by a score of 3-1 in the first five innings. We are going to play safe with a +0.5 hook to confirm a win if the score is tied after the fifth.

Cole Ragans is 0-2 with a 5.93 in his three career starts vs Cleveland and Tanner Bibee counters at 2-0 with a 3.67 and 26 strikeouts in his 5 career starts vs KC.

Sonny Gray under 5.5 strikeouts x 1 unit:

Sonny Gray faces his old team on Opening Day with a line of 5.5 strikeouts that we feel is set too high. Gray struggled in the spring and the metrics are down on his sinker and sweeper.

Last season Minnesota’s offence was in the bottom 10 for strikeouts and Gray should be limited to around 80 pitches in this start.

Mariners/Athletics No run first inning (NRFI) x 1 unit:

Last year Logan Gilbert and Luis Severino were both great in NRFI situations and this game will be hosted in the most pitcher-friendly park in the league.

While these lineups don’t look the most threatening on paper, the A’s still have some thump, but we expect Logan Gilbert to be able to handle them.

That is all we have for Thursday’s slate. Looking forward to a successful baseball season with you folks. Thanks for reading.

-Bryce and Josh