Good morning/afternoon TJC subscribers,

We are going live for our first plays of the 2025 MLB postseason, with two plays for Oct. 4.

Teaser: Aaron Judge over 0.5 BB/First 5 innings over 1.5 runs x 3 units

I have been eyeing Aaron Judge’s BB market since the Yankees advanced to the ALDS. The Blue Jays were by far the most careful with Judge this season, walking him 15 times in 13 games (including 7 intentional walks). In his career, Judge has walked 11 times in 48 at-bats against Kevin Gausman.

The Jays have announced that they will have four lefties in their bullpen for this series, and with Judge normally having a left-handed bat behind him, we could very well see him intentionally walked late in the game to get the Blue Jays the matchup they want.

As for the first 5 innings over 1.5 runs, our model calculated four runs to be scored in the first 5 innings, and we are teasing this down two full runs to get the juice on the Judge line. These are two prolific offences, and we will only need them to combine for two runs in the first five innings.

Kevin Gausman under 16.5 pitcher outs x 1 unit

I just mentioned the Jays had four lefties in their bullpen this series, and in total, they will carry 10 relievers in their bullpen.

Blue Jays fans have a lasting memory from the last time they were in the playoffs and manager John Schneider had a quick hook for starter Jose Berrios against the Minnesota Twins. In that same series, Schneider pulled Gausman from his start after four innings.

This is only a one-unit play because the Jays announced rookie Trey Yesavage will get the nod in game two and they may look to get some length from Gausman today. Nonetheless, a 10-man bullpen and Schneider’s history of quick hooks could lead to Gausman exiting this game early.

Appreciate all the support, as always, folks and best of luck. Happy Saturday!

-Bryce and Josh