🚨🏈 NFL Draft bets

By: Josh Frey-Sam

Welcome to draft week, folks!

And what would an event of such magnitude be without us sweating a few bets?

Today, we’ll give you an all-encompassing rundown of the bets we’ve placed for the first round on Thursday, along with a few more that we like.

First, we’ve included Josh’s most recent mock draft, which we encourage you to read to see where some of these players could go in the first round.

Josh’s final mock will drop on the morning of the first round, and you can get that sent to your inbox — along with daily NFL content — by subscribing to his personal newsletter, the Back Bacon Brief.

Shamless plug. Now let’s get down to business.

With that, here are my favourite first-round bets:

*Over 2.5 running backs selected (2.20) x 1 unit

Explanation: Jeanty is going top-10, and I just don’t see Hampton getting out of the first round either. Henderson is the swinger here, and everything is pointing to him going much earlier than many had originally thought. He’s the Jahmyr Gibbs of this draft, and team’s covet that.

*Jaxson Dart to be second QB selected (3.20) x 1 unit

Explanation: Dart’s stock has pointed upward since we got into the thick of draft season. Meanwhile, Shedeur Sanders’ needle has trended a bit more downward. It’s clear that teams value Dart’s size and mobility, and I think we see a team trade up for him.

*Tyler Warren under 9.5 (2.75) x 1 unit

Explanation: The sense is Warren will go No. 7, 8 or 9. He’s one of the few blue-chippers in this draft, and I don’t know how teams would let him slide to double digits.

Here’s the next wave of plays that I feel strongly about:

*Cincinnati to draft offensive line (9.00) x .5 units

Note: Cincy could go in several directions with this pick, but, to me, it’s either EDGE or offensive line. We’ll place a small bet and go with the value here to potentially hit big.

*New Orleans to draft EDGE (9.50) x .5 units

Note: I originally had the Saints taking QB at No. 9, but I’m beginning to think they take one of these talented pass-rushers first, then look to trade back into the first round for a QB.

*Colston Loveland over 19.5 (3.00) x .5 units

Note: The key hurdles are the Colts at No. 14 and the Seahawks at No. 18. Everyone has TE going to Indy, but they can address that in the second round. Meanwhile, Seattle needs to upgrade that offensive line before they worry about weapons.

*Kelvin Banks Jr. over 13.5 (2.30) x .5 units

Note: Banks could go as early as No. 11 to the Niners, and the Dolphins are also in play at No. 13, but I just think there are better options available, which will force him to slide.

Fringe first-rounders that need to be on your radar:

*CB Trey Amos to be 1st round pick (3.25)

Note: long and physical corners tend to go earlier.

*QB Jalen Milroe to be 1st round pick (2.25)

Note: There’s a lot of smoke building that a team will trade back into the first round for him.

*WR Jayden Higgins to be 1st round pick (7.50)

Note: My favourite receiver in the draft. Has all the tools of a first-round pick. Could be the surprise of the night.

*CB Azareye’h Thomas to be 1st round pick (5.25)

Note: Daniel Jeremiah has Thomas going late in his most recent mock draft.

*TE Mason Taylor to be 1st round pick (5.00)

Note: There’s more belief that the Eagles could take Taylor with the last pick of the night.

*Tackle Ariontae Ersery to be 1st round pick (6.50)

Note: Has the potential to emerge as one of the best from this class. A team could bank on the traits and swing early.

Finally, here are some other team-specific bets that are worth considering (position of first pick):

*Baltimore Ravens - safety (4.75)

*Carolina Panthers - tight end (23.00)

*Indianapolis Colts - EDGE (9.50)

*Kansas City Chiefs - running back (13.00)

We’ll have plenty of draft content this week, so if you want to dial in, then keep tabs on our YouTube page, where Josh will give a final rundown of every bet we’re placing, and The Janitor’s Closet Podcast, where we will go even deeper on Thursday’s action.

Always appreciate the support, folks. Good luck 🍀 

Josh & Bryce