🚨🏈 Super Bowl LIX release

🏈 Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) -1.5 × 3 units

At first blush, the Chiefs were going to be our biggest play of the year in this spot. As we looked deeper into this matchup, it got tougher to handicap.

We think the Chiefs win and cover, but the matchup is too close to hammer down with a big wager.

We’re not breaking any news in saying the Eagles have more talent on both sides of the ball. However, the Chiefs have a great equalizer in Patrick Mahomes.

This is a really interesting matchup, and it comes down to two key factors, in our opinion:

1. How does Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo choose to defend the Eagles’ offence?

The Chiefs’ run defence was once the strength of this unit. It was one of the best rush defences in the league. Times have changed since the weather got a little colder, however.

James Cook rattled off 13 carries for 85 yards in the AFC Championship game. Joe Mixon tallied 18 totes for 88 yards the week before. Back in December, Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 146 yards on 24 carries, while Cleveland’s Jermone Ford and Nick Chubb combined for an efficient 125 yards on just 16 carries.

To be clear, the Chiefs’ run defence is not bad relative to the rest of the league. But this area has become the weakness of the defence.

Enter the Eagles and, more importantly, Saquon Barkley, who has rushed for at least 119 yards in each of the last five contests.

This is a giant step up in class for the Chiefs’ run defence, so how Spagnuolo opts to defend Philly’s offence could make or break this game. Working in the Chiefs’ favour is they have the cornerbacks — Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson — to match up with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Could we see Spags sell out to stop Saquon?

Whatever Spags does, we don’t think Saquon will take over this game like he has in most games this year. And if he isn’t dominating, the Eagles are a different offence.

2. Can the Chiefs overcome the disadvantage in the trenches?

Here’s what this game — and every game — really comes down to.

Looking across the board, this game has no bigger mismatch than the Eagles’ defensive line vs. the Chiefs’ offensive line. You could argue the second greatest mismatch is the Eagles’ offensive line vs. the Chiefs’ defensive line.

Eagles DC Vic Fangio can play the defence he wants when the front four can disrupt and he doesn’t have to blitz. We’re not quite as worried about the Chiefs’ offence being able to overcome this with the quick pass game and perhaps even running some tempo to keep the pass-rushers off-balance and tired.

But things can get tricky when the Eagles are leading, especially as the game gets into the later stages. Few teams have been better at smothering a game than the Eagles this season. When they get up, they dominate the trenches and it becomes a tremendous challenge to overcome.

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In the end, we’re siding with KC here because we feel this team can overcome an unfavourable game script better than the Eagles can. The Eagles have hardly been pushed this season — they’re going to be pushed in this game. How will they respond to that?

The Eagles are also a team that relies greatly on a positive game script. While we respect Jalen Hurts, this is a different team if he needs to drop back and Saquon can’t lead the offence on the ground.

The Chiefs have the coaching and quarterback advantage, and there’s no better place to have it than the Super Bowl.

This is the only play we’re releasing through our newsletter for SB LIX. We will have props, but you will need to tap into our BEST BETS show on YouTube to find out what those are.

Our show will drop on Tuesday evening.

We appreciate your support all season, folks. Let’s finish strong and #SweepTheSlate 🧹 

Josh & Bryce